The Ukrainian conflict poses a difficult
situation for the United States and Western states because of the intricate
variables that have to be considered in attempting to make a uniform stance on
the issue. The United States will not intervene with its military in Ukraine because
the American people are tired of an American World Police Force. In addition,
American politicians fear American military intervention could trigger a second
Cold War. A second option are trade sanctions. Trade sanctions placed on Russia
by the United States and Europe are a double edge sword. Although they hurt a
Russian economy, it incentivizes Russia to in turn place sanctions on these
states which would hurt states dependent on Russian oil like Germany. The United
States should play a major role in freezing Russian accounts and creating more sanctions
because it is not as dependent on Russia as much as Europe.
An effective measure of Western support
to the Ukrainian government would be to increase support in Eastern Europe. President
Putin could be increasing Russian globalization to rebuild a mighty Russian
empire and Western states need to show strength among fearful governments. In
2005, Putin stated the collapse of the Soviet Union as “ a major geopolitical
disaster”[1].
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian leaders reminded the newly formed
states to keep close allegiance to Russia because of the blood and history the
states have endured since the twentieth century. Since the American reset,
Putin has increased Russian intervention across the Middle East and Eastern
Europe to both entice leaders to ally with Russia and undermine Western powers.
Russia can only be told to stop overreaching so often until the Russian
government no longer listens to other governments. Intergovernmental
organizations like NATO and the EU need to display strength and allegiance to
their members in the face of Russian aggression because all of Putin’s tactics
could only be a result from his aim of destabilizing these powers. Many former
Soviet Union satellites remain close to Russia because the construction of
businesses and industries in a state during the Soviet Union control. Many
Pro-Ukrainian want to remain close to Russia for this reason. If Putin can successfully help Pro-Russian Ukrainians
break away from Ukraine or Assad’s regime quell the rebellion, member states
within the EU or NATO will question if it is in the state’s best interest to
remain a part of the IGO. Germany depends on Russian oil for its economy, which
is the strongest in the EU, but if Russia ceases flow to Europe, not only will
the EU’s market falter, but the world economy could experience a crisis.
Economic complications could trigger largest European economy to withdraw from
the EU.
Ukraine must address two issues: the
internal Civil War and building a legitimate government. The Civil War is a
state issue and no foreign powers should intervene, including Russia. Western
powers are helping build a legitimate government for all of Ukraine. The United
States along with the EU are helping the Ukraine government establish an
Anti-Corruption Bureau to investigate corruption within the government. The
Bureau will enforce stricter anti-corruption laws and monitor the distribution
of money throughout government officials. This Anti-Corruption Bureau helps
build legitimacy of the Ukrainian government on international level as well as
the personal level. Perhaps by eliminating corrupt leaders within government,
the Ukrainian government can begin diplomatic work with the Pro-Eastern groups,
Russian, Crimea, and Eastern Europe as a whole. After all, it is corruption that
started more than a decade of conflicts in Ukraine.
[1]
Morelli, Vincent
L. “Ukraine: Current Issues and Foreign Policy.” Congressional Research
Service, 3 Aug. 2016, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/rl33460.pdf.
I agree with a lot of what you say but question your argument that the EU economy will potentially plummet if Russia stops supplying oil. Russia does control a lot of oil supplied to the EU but the EU can function without it. Without Russia oil prices would have to increase slightly in the EU but the EU does have an internal oil source. So would it really be affected that badly?
ReplyDeleteMy reasoning behind an economic decline in the EU because of a lack of oil rests on the EU's need for foreign oil. Although members do have oil fields within their states, if Russia threatens to cut off the flow of oil they will not want to distribute their natural resources willingly throughout the EU. It is like a child with a pack of gum. If a child has a pack of gum and a friend asks for a piece, they will give a piece, but if the whole class begins asking for a piece of gum next thing the child knows his pack of gum is empty and he only enjoyed one piece.
DeleteIf states within the EU decide to allow other states to buy their oil, they dictate the prices and flow of oil. Brenda Shaffer describes how most of the gas Europe uses is foreign and three producers, all of which are based outside of Europe, provide a third of European energy.
If the EU lost Russian oil, economic production would come to a grinding halt because it is the closest producer of oil especially with its building of new pipelines. Most Eastern European Union states have limited access to other forms of oil like Liquefied Natural Gas making the need for Russian oil more important. States such as Greece, Hungary, or Bulgaria that are trying to break through to the world market economy need more oil to bolster their manufacturing, so if that comes to a halt, they may experience an economic downturn which impacts many other states within the EU.
I have several questions for you after this post. What would it look like for the United States to support Eastern Europe to make them "strong states" in the face of Russian aggression? The only way I can think that Russia is "globalizing" as you say, is through a militarized means, which is not the future of "strength" or "power" in the international arena. So is this "globalization" really a threat to Europe or the United States? Also, I am on the same page as Emilia when it comes to energy. Germany has a target of having 18% of its energy come from renewable sources by the year 2020. The EU is constantly upping its target for percentage of renewable energy. Maybe the Germany economy would have to scramble for other sources of oil and natural gas if Russia "shut off the pipe," but how long are they going to have this kind of power over Europe? They also need that money from oil exports to continuing its military actions. So do you really think a lack of Russia oil will force Germany out of the EU? I don't see enough evidence for that claim.
ReplyDeleteThe American people are tired of an American International Police Force so the United States could use more of its diplomatic powers to help the Eastern European states. The President could welcome foreign ministers from these Eastern European states to summits. At these summits, the United States can remind these Eastern European states of how strong the United States and Western states’ economies are compared to those of Russia and its close allies. Also, the United States can help formulate bilateral or multilateral trade negotiations with these states as a physical display of alliance. On the world stage the United States could bring more attention to the rising threat of Russia’s surging economy and multilateral agreements to deter states away from the EU or NATO. By allowing these usually weak states to express explicit fears of Russian aggression to the EU or NATO, it will hopefully make other states to act and display allegiance for these states. In an ideal world, the U.S would stand firm with their Eastern European allies like it does with South Korea.
DeleteI agree in thinking the EU and Germany should constantly invest money into renewable energy efforts and it is great that they are always increasing their use of clean energy, but there are some issues. It is great that Germany is trying to move away from its dependence on oil, but it is still a key import and an important factor in manufacturing and it will continue to be an influential commodity in the world market. Like we were discussing in class, oil has been a major factor in whether or not states intervene in rogue states and it allows for dictators to stay in power to continue the flow of oil for the world market.
Germany is the third largest exporter in the world economy. About half of Germany’s exports depend on oil and gas not only for production, but use as well. Its main exports are cars, plane engines, generators, and other vehicular parts that depend on oil. Although it manufactures products reliant on gas and oil, consider its internal agricultural sector and the tractors, rototillers, trucks that transport, and the machines to sift the crops dependent on gas and oil.
Although the EU wants to move away from dependence on Russian oil, it will probably still be one of the top traders of oil to the EU because of its location. Like the reading stated, Russia has been building several pipelines into Europe or has invested money into deterring the EU from creating non-oil movements or other non-Russian pipelines. I am sure the United States would want to be the EU’s first call for a new oil contract, but because the EU would be needy, the U.S would probably make Europe pay a far higher price. I agree that if Germany moves away from Russian oil, it could hurt Russia’s economy. That may be a reason why Russia became the leading figure in the Eurasian Economic Union, to find other markets.
Even though it may not vote for leaving the EU in the near future, because of Germany’s strong economy and wanting to remain in the elite economies of the world and continue to challenge the United States and China, it may consider a “Gexit”. States joining the EU always have to consider their own citizens and state’s future instead of the other members. Protests against Chancellor Merkel’s aid to the Greece financial situation or the acceptance of Syrian refugees stem from this argument. So if the German economy begins crashing as a result of high gas prices or no gas at all, people and politicians alike may consider leaving the EU. I agree that there may not be enough evidence, but by seeing growing protests throughout the years in Germany and the recent Brexit over similar issues, I would not be surprised if it happens again, the next time with Germany.